Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
